Strategic Competition and Regional Recalibration: South Asia in the Shadow of United States–China Rivalry

Abstract

This study examines the evolving strategic landscape of South Asia against the backdrop of intensifying rivalry between the People’s Republic of China and the United States of America. Beijing now pursues an increasingly assertive bid for expansive global influence, whereas Washington exhibits a discernible inclination toward selective engagement and relative retrenchment. As the international system gradually moves from the post-Cold War era of unipolar predominance to a more pluralistic distribution of power, expectations of a seamless adjustment remain uncertain. Over recent years, bilateral relations between the two leading actors have deteriorated: cooperation has waned, mutual distrust has deepened, and previously institutionalised dialogues have faltered. Both governments consequently identify the Indo-Pacific theatre—and by extension the South Asian sub-region—as pivotal for safeguarding long-term security and economic interests. The ongoing reallocation of material, technological, and diplomatic capabilities constitutes a classic power transition that could crystallise into a twenty-first-century variant of the Cold War. Such a contest carries profound implications for the sovereign states of South Asia. This analysis, therefore, explores how regional governments calibrate their foreign policies within an increasingly competitive environment, alternately balancing or bandwagoning in response to divergent inducements and pressures. Particular attention is paid to the prospect of accelerated conventional and strategic arms procurement, the disruption of cross-border trade and investment flows, and the potential aggravation of existing socio-economic vulnerabilities precipitated by external alignments. Ultimately, the current trajectory of the United States–China competition portends serious consequences on both global and regional scales. The capacity of decision-makers to mitigate attendant risks will depend upon constructing inclusive diplomatic mechanisms, reinforcing multilateral norms, and prioritising sustainable development over zero-sum paradigms. Positioned at the intersection of these contending ambitions, South Asia is likely to remain a decisive arena wherein the emerging contours of a post-unipolar world order will be tested and defined in the decades to come.