Exploring the Impact of Socio-Economic Factors on Fertility Trends: Evidence from Lebanon

Abstract

The primary objective of this study is to explore the influence of various socio-economic factors on the fertility rate in Lebanon spanning from 1971 to 2016. To begin with, the stationarity of the variables under consideration is assessed using the Philips Perron unit root test. Subsequently, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to co-integration is employed to investigate the presence of co-integration among the variables within the model. Finally, the study delves into the causal relationships among the variables through the application of Variance Decomposition and Impulse Response Function analyses. Through these methodological approaches, the study aims to gain deeper insights into the complex interplay between socio-economic factors and fertility rates in Lebanon over the specified time period. The findings of the estimation indicate that the selected variables within the model exhibit a mixed order of integration. In the long run, the study reveals significant negative associations between female education and urbanization with the fertility rate in Lebanon. This suggests that as female education levels increase and urbanization progresses, there is a notable decrease in the fertility rate within the country. Such results underscore the importance of socio-economic factors in shaping demographic trends and highlight the potential of educational attainment and urban development in influencing fertility behavior.  The findings suggest that life expectancy and per capita income demonstrate a positive and significant association with fertility in Lebanon. Moreover, the estimated Error Correction Term (ECT) suggests that short-term deviations take more than 5 years to converge to the long-run equilibrium. This underscores the importance of sustained socio-economic improvements in influencing the fertility rate in Lebanon. By focusing on enhancing life expectancy and increasing per capita income levels, policymakers can potentially contribute to lowering fertility rates in the country over the long term.