Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Cash and Food Crop Production in Pakistan: Insights and Adaptation Strategies

Abstract

This study examines the impact of climate change on cash and food crop production in Pakistan, highlighting the agricultural sector’s vulnerability to environmental shifts. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and unit root tests are employed to assess variable stationarity, ensuring robust time series analysis. These tests determine whether the variables exhibit stationary behavior, which is essential for accurate modeling and forecasting. If non-stationary, appropriate transformations or modeling techniques are applied to address trends in the data. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used to analyze the effects of climate change on cotton and wheat production in Pakistan. The findings indicate a negative and significant relationship between rising temperatures and crop yields, emphasizing the susceptibility of these crops to changing climatic conditions. This underscores the need for adaptation measures and sustainable agricultural practices to mitigate adverse impacts. Policymakers must invest in drought-resistant crop varieties, improve irrigation infrastructure, and promote climate-smart agriculture. Additionally, the study reveals that water availability, fertilizer offtake, and cropped area positively and significantly affect climate change’s impact on agriculture, highlighting the importance of efficient resource management. Addressing climate change challenges requires sustainable water management, optimized fertilizer use, and effective land utilization. Pakistan must implement proactive measures such as water conservation, climate-resilient crop varieties, and farmer training to enhance productivity. Integrating scientific research, policy interventions, and community engagement is vital for addressing climate change's multifaceted impacts. By prioritizing resilience and sustainable agricultural development, Pakistan can strengthen food security and ensure long-term agricultural sustainability.